2014 preview

Justin:

Just 71 days, 9 hours and 11 minutes until P1 in Australia.

Of course before this preview gets going, I should mention Michael Shumacher. As many people have pointed out, if anyone was in a position where fighting spirit and steel determination was needed, he'd be top of the list. Get well soon Michael.

Red Bull
With Webber having departed, Daniel Ricciardo steps into the role of Aussie Number Two. Course, Red Bull say there are no clear orders regarding number one drivers, but we all know it's Vettel's house - his 4 world titles give him this as well as protection from the RB powers that be when things go wrong - see Malaysia 2013! Ricciardo is quick. Whilst I don't think he'll beat Vettel over a season, there might be one or two times where Vettel throws his toys out of the pram when Ricciardo might trump him in qualy. Team dynamics are key and it will be interesting to see how each party reacts when this happens. I expect Vettel to be in the title hunt and RB will be up there with Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Lotus.

Mercedes
Rosberg and Hamilton were evenly matched in 2013. Lewis will have more of an input on the car this time around so expect to see a faster, more settled Lewis in 2014. Rosberg will undoubtedly raise his game to meet this challenge. If, as people predict, Mercedes build the best power train, then expect both drivers to be real title contenders. The only weaknesses with Mercedes could be tyre wear (they have had this issue since 2010/11) and the reshuffle at the top - with Brawn out they have a technical director and a commercial director. Will be interesting to see who takes blame for stuff when it goes tits up.

Ferrari
Fire and Ice. This is the team where it could all go spectacularly wrong. If they don't produce a winning car (quite likely given the shit they have churned out the last few years), then expect Alonso to wring it's neck and get more out of it than Kimi over the course of a season. Kimi was allegedly brought in to keep Alonso honest in qualy - but as Alonso pointed out, Massa was just as quick as Kimi over their years as teammates. If Ferrari give both guys a winning car - then, well, how it all plays out is anyones guess. The politics at Ferrari are huge. Kimi more or less doesnt get involved in all this so I think it will all be down to how each guy reacts when soundly beaten by the other. Then again, these two may push each other towards the constructors and drivers titles, who knows.

McLaren
This is the year that JB could be made to look a little stupid by a fast rookie. It also has the potential to be the year when JB drives a sublime car to his second world title. If the car is awesome, JB will crush Magnuessen. As a team they must bounce back after 2013 was their worst season for 30 years!

Lotus
Maldonado is still a wild, unpredictable driver. He did win a race when the Williams was good, but I don't expect much from him at Lotus. They should have gotten The Hulk. Grosjean will go onwards and upwards from 2013 and lead this team with style I believe. I wouldnt be surprised, if the car is good, to see Grosjean take his first F1 win in 2014.

Williams
Regulation changes may help them move forwards. Bottas is a very quick guy and with Massa in it for three years I expect much progress from this legendary team in 2014.

Force India
Perez and Hulk is a great combination on paper. Whilst it was the best available seat for Hulk after Lotus declined his services, I am unsure why he has signed a multiyear contract - what if a big team comes calling, which it surely will. With Perez around, I'm half expecting these two to be shunting each other off a fair bit.

Sauber
If they can produce a good car as in 2013, expect Sutil to lead them to many points finishes.

Torro Rosso
Their car was pretty useful in 2013. If they can do the same again I reckon they'll get a fair few points finishes. JEV will be looking to prove the Red Bull people wrong by hiring Ricciardo over him.

Marussia and Caterham
The regulation changes represent the best chance of jumping up the grid a bit for these two eternal backmarker teams.

I have a funny feeling that the two Mercedes drivers will be heavily involved in the drivers title race. There are bound to be others for sure - Vettel and Alonso, but Mercedes seem to be making a lot of good noises thus far and the big rumour is that their power train is pretty awesome and ahead of the game. They need to sort bloody tyre wear and sort off-track issues asap.

Four races, four race winners, four championship leaders

Phil: Yesterday in Bahrain, the race that shouldn't have happened but everyone's secretly glad that it did reminded us yet again how close this season is - and there's every reason to think it will stay that way. As if the stat above wasn't enough, here's another - in 2011, seven men stood on the podium all season, and five of them monopolised it for all but the first two races. So far this season, eight men have stood on the podium, after only four races.

The balance of power in F1 seems to shift on an almost weekly basis. Last weekend in Shanghai, Mercedes were the class of the field. This weekend, Red Bull and Lotus had the advantage, Mercedes were lacklustre and erstwhile championship leaders McLaren really had a race to forget. David Coulthard made a very interesting point pre-race in that this is what you get when you have stability in the rules - each team has time to figure out what makes the fastest teams fastest, and copy it. The result is a very close field, which in turn makes for exciting races.

There's only time to note really that Raikkonen's second and Grosjean's third were the first podium positions for Lotus cars since Nelson Piquet in 1988. There's a great pic on the BBC website of race winner Vettel (oh yeah, forgot to mention, the reigning world champion took his first win of the season) marking the occasion by giving Raikkonen the bunny ears during the podium photo session.

Lewis love-in

Phil: Just when we thought the season was all over, a Vettel DNF and a Lewis love-in. Who'd have thought it?

For most of this season, Hamilton has seemed unable to do anything right. I've lost count of the number of times he's tangled with Felipe Massa, sometimes at successive race weekends. We speculated that it might be personal issues, or the fact that for the first time in his career he's been consistently outraced by his teammate. Whatever it was, he put his demons to bed yesterday and his second (or third?) race win of the year.

Not only that, but a reconciliation, nay even a love-in, with his old arch-rival Fernando Alonso. Embracing on the podium? 'The greatest driver of his generation' (or something like that)?

Maybe Vettel's puncture robbed us of a titanic scrap for the win, or maybe Vettel would have walked it given four tyres with air in rather than three. But the second half of this season to my mind has been a bit flat. Vettel has been driving within himself and the others, as I've commented before, seem to have the same tussles for the same places - Alonso against Webber, Hamiton against Massa, Schumacher against Rosberg - every race. Don't get me wrong, the first half of the season gave us some classic races - Canada will stay in my mind for a long time - even though the championship was never really in doubt, but now the fizz has well and truly gone out of it, as if each driver knows his part in the play and acts it accordingly.

So we go on to 2012. The top four teams are retaining their current line-ups (which may well mean more of the same next year) but further down the grid things are more fluid. As we've said, three drivers are in the running for the no 1 seat at Williams, of all places: Barrichello, Sutil and potentially a returning Kimi Raikkonen. Let's hope that if and when Frank Williams calls Raikkonen to offer him a drive, he's not too busy having a shit to take the call. Actually, let's hope he is.

There are no less than four drivers in the offing at Renault, who we must remember to call Lotus next year. Rumour has it they'll go for Grosjean, who's famous for not being as crap as Nelson Piquet Jr., and Petrov, who isn't famous for anything. Personally I'd much rather see Bruno Senna, and a fully recovered Robert Kubica.

But then at least one of those options, sadly, is starting to look very unlikely.