The magic number is 256

Phil: As usual I agree with my co-blogger what a nail-biting finale we have to this epic season. I'd also like before we go any further to doff my cap to the appropriate angle to show some rispeck (innit?) to Nico Hulkenberg for his maiden pole at Interlagos. He's someone we'll be seeing more of in future, I think.

Now, the interesting bit. I've taken a break from my day job crunching numbers to crunch some numbers. Only these numbers aren't ordinary numbers. They're Formula 1 world championship points.

Let's start with the easy bit. If Alonso wins or is second in Abu Dhabi, he is world champion.

If he is third or fourth, Webber needs to win the race to be world champion, and Vettel cannot be world champion. As my co-blogger hinted, Red Bull may have suggest Vettel moves aside to let Webber win the race. All the indications are that they will do the sensible thing, but Dieter Mateschitz, the head of Red Bull and Christian Horner's boss, is on record as saying Red Bull, unlike Ferrari, don't do team orders. If they do, then I for one would be interested to hear Alonso's view on team orders immediately after the race.

What I really want to see, however, is Vettel first, Webber second, Alonso fifth. This would give each driver 256 points. In the event of a tie (which has never happened, the closest winning margin being half a point, Lauda ahead of Prost, in 1984) the rules say that the champion is the driver with the highest number of wins. The problem is that Vettel and Alonso will both have won five races each. So you look at second places, and third places. Unfortunately, they will still be tied even then. In fact, Vettel will win the world title by three fourth places to Alonso's two (his third fourth place being scored, ironically enough, at Monza). While I have no particular affection for Vettel and have publicly stated I want Webber to be world champion, I think this would be a suitable climax to this season.

Finally, Lewis Hamilton can only win the title if he wins the race, with Vettel no higher than 3rd, Webber no higher than 6th and Alonso no higher than 11th.

Unfortunately for McLaren, that's about as likely as a wet race at Abu Dhabi.